Tuesday, January 03, 2006

2006 Hurricane prediction

147 Days until this:

See the Fl. Gulf coast Probabilities at the bottom of the article...



EXTENDED RANGE FORECAST OF ATLANTIC SEASONAL HURRICANE ACTIVITY AND U.S. LANDFALL STRIKE PROBABILITY FOR 2006



We foresee another very active Atlantic basin tropical cyclone season in 2006. However, we do not expect to see as many landfalling major hurricanes in the United States as we have experienced in 2004 and 2005.



(as of 6 December 2005)





By Philip J. Klotzbach[1] and William M. Gray[2]



with special assistance from William Thorson[3]





This forecast as well as past forecasts and verifications are available via the World Wide Web at http://hurricane.atmos.colostate.edu/Forecasts


Brad Bohlander and Emily Wilmsen, Colorado State University Media Representatives, (970-491-6432) are available to answer various questions about this forecast





Department of Atmospheric Science

Colorado State University

Fort Collins, CO 80523

Email: amie@atmos.colostate.edu




ATLANTIC BASIN SEASONAL HURRICANE FORECAST FOR 2006



Forecast Parameter and 1950-2000

Climatology (in parentheses)


6 December 2005

Forecast for 2006

Named Storms (NS) (9.6)


17

Named Storm Days (NSD) (49.1)


85

Hurricanes (H) (5.9)


9

Hurricane Days (HD) (24.5)


45

Intense Hurricanes (IH) (2.3)


5

Intense Hurricane Days (IHD) (5.0)


13

Net Tropical Cyclone Activity (NTC) (100%)


195




PROBABILITIES FOR AT LEAST ONE MAJOR (CATEGORY 3-4-5) HURRICANE LANDFALL ON EACH OF THE FOLLOWING COASTAL AREAS:



1) Entire U.S. coastline - 81% (average for last century is 52%)



2) U.S. East Coast Including Peninsula Florida - 64% (average for last century is 31%)



3) Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle westward to Brownsville - 47% (average for last century is 30%)



4) Above-average major hurricane landfall risk in the Caribbean

Comments: Post a Comment



<< Home

This page is powered by Blogger. Isn't yours?


Join the Blue Ribbon Online Free Speech Campaign
Join the Blue Ribbon Online Free Speech Campaign!