Tuesday, April 04, 2006
Silver Lining in 2006 Storm Forecast
Read down for the Silver Lining in Bold
Gray's new prediction: Busy storm season
By DAVID LARIMER
FLORIDA TODAY WEB EXTRAS
Join us tonight
Post-hurricane tourism revival
Hurricane season draws near | video
Dr. William Gray's forecast site
Latest prediction
Here is Dr. William Gray's projection for the 2006 Atlantic hurricane season:
Storm type l forecast l Avg.
Trop. storms 17 9.6
Hurricanes 9 5.9
Maj. 'canes 5 2.3
Major hurricane has winds of 111 mph and higher
The nation's most prominent hurricane forecaster and his team today updated predictions for the 2006 season, echoing an earlier report: It will be a busy and dangerous year.
Dr. William Gray stuck with projections from his December 2005 forecast: There will be 17 tropical storms, nine of them strengthening to hurricane status and five of those becoming major hurricanes with sustained winds of 111 mph or higher.
But one item in his newest report is causing concern for Florida and the East Coast of the United States. The Colorado State University scientist said there is a 64 percent chance of a major hurricane making landfall in the region. The average for the last century is 31 percent, Gray said.
This region stretches from Cedar Key on Florida's west coast up to Maine, WKMG Local 6 meteorologist Larry Mowry pointed out.
"These are the highest percentages for this area in the last four years," Mowry said.
Last year, the Atlantic Basin had a record 27 tropical storms -- so many that the National Hurricane Center had to turn to the Greek alphabet for names. Of these storms, 15 grew into hurricanes with sustained winds of 74 mph or higher and seven became major hurricanes with winds more than 110 mph.
The historic average is 10 tropical storms, six hurricanes and 2.5 intense hurricanes.
The new forecast has a silver lining in the storm clouds -- scientists believe the next two years will be calmer than the 2004-05 seasons in landfalling major hurricanes.
"Even though we expect to see the current active period of Atlantic major hurricane activity to continue for another 15-20 years, it is statistically unlikely that the coming 2006 and 2007 hurricane seasons, or the seasons which follow, will have the number of major hurricane U.S. landfall events as we have seen in 2004-2005," the Colorado State scientists said.
La Niña prevails
Scientist said a La Niña pattern exists in the Pacific Ocean, which can lead to a busy hurricane season.
The Colorado State atmospheric team said either neutral or weak La Niña conditions are expected to be present during the June 1 to Nov. 30 Atlantic hurricane season.
La Niña is marked by cool sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific, meaning there will be fewer thunderstorms that can shear off the tops of budding hurricanes in the Atlantic.
On the other hand, El Niño is marked by warmer-than-normal sea temperatures, which can lead to more thunderstorms capable of capping hurricane activity.
New prime author of forecast
The latest forecast has a new main author for the first time with Gray handing over prime responsibility to scientist Phil Klotzbach.
"After 22 years (since 1984) of making these forecasts, it is appropriate that I step back and have Phil Klotzbach assume the primary responsibility for our project’s seasonal, monthly and landfall probability forecasts," Gray said.
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Contact David Larimer at 321-242-3601 or dlarimer@brevard.gannett.com
Gray's new prediction: Busy storm season
By DAVID LARIMER
FLORIDA TODAY WEB EXTRAS
Join us tonight
Post-hurricane tourism revival
Hurricane season draws near | video
Dr. William Gray's forecast site
Latest prediction
Here is Dr. William Gray's projection for the 2006 Atlantic hurricane season:
Storm type l forecast l Avg.
Trop. storms 17 9.6
Hurricanes 9 5.9
Maj. 'canes 5 2.3
Major hurricane has winds of 111 mph and higher
The nation's most prominent hurricane forecaster and his team today updated predictions for the 2006 season, echoing an earlier report: It will be a busy and dangerous year.
Dr. William Gray stuck with projections from his December 2005 forecast: There will be 17 tropical storms, nine of them strengthening to hurricane status and five of those becoming major hurricanes with sustained winds of 111 mph or higher.
But one item in his newest report is causing concern for Florida and the East Coast of the United States. The Colorado State University scientist said there is a 64 percent chance of a major hurricane making landfall in the region. The average for the last century is 31 percent, Gray said.
This region stretches from Cedar Key on Florida's west coast up to Maine, WKMG Local 6 meteorologist Larry Mowry pointed out.
"These are the highest percentages for this area in the last four years," Mowry said.
Last year, the Atlantic Basin had a record 27 tropical storms -- so many that the National Hurricane Center had to turn to the Greek alphabet for names. Of these storms, 15 grew into hurricanes with sustained winds of 74 mph or higher and seven became major hurricanes with winds more than 110 mph.
The historic average is 10 tropical storms, six hurricanes and 2.5 intense hurricanes.
The new forecast has a silver lining in the storm clouds -- scientists believe the next two years will be calmer than the 2004-05 seasons in landfalling major hurricanes.
"Even though we expect to see the current active period of Atlantic major hurricane activity to continue for another 15-20 years, it is statistically unlikely that the coming 2006 and 2007 hurricane seasons, or the seasons which follow, will have the number of major hurricane U.S. landfall events as we have seen in 2004-2005," the Colorado State scientists said.
La Niña prevails
Scientist said a La Niña pattern exists in the Pacific Ocean, which can lead to a busy hurricane season.
The Colorado State atmospheric team said either neutral or weak La Niña conditions are expected to be present during the June 1 to Nov. 30 Atlantic hurricane season.
La Niña is marked by cool sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific, meaning there will be fewer thunderstorms that can shear off the tops of budding hurricanes in the Atlantic.
On the other hand, El Niño is marked by warmer-than-normal sea temperatures, which can lead to more thunderstorms capable of capping hurricane activity.
New prime author of forecast
The latest forecast has a new main author for the first time with Gray handing over prime responsibility to scientist Phil Klotzbach.
"After 22 years (since 1984) of making these forecasts, it is appropriate that I step back and have Phil Klotzbach assume the primary responsibility for our project’s seasonal, monthly and landfall probability forecasts," Gray said.
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Contact David Larimer at 321-242-3601 or dlarimer@brevard.gannett.com
