Monday, June 05, 2006
Weather underground blog
In case you missed this in the Northwest Florida Daily News on May 28th.
| Posted By: | JeffMasters at 2:49 AM GMT on June 04, 2006 |
For the next week, I'll be posting excerpts from an interview I did with the Northwest Florida Daily News of Fort Walton Beach, Florida, that was published on Sunday, May 28. The questions were posed to me by Del Stone Jr., Deputy Managing Editor and self-admitted weather nut.
Q. Is The Weather Underground your full-time job?
A. The Weather Underground is my full-time job, but I do a few guest lectures for the University of Michigan introductory meteorology classes.
Q. The $64,000 question, at least for people along the Emerald Coast here in Northwest Florida, is: What can we expect of the hurricane season in 2006? Specifically, do you have any feel for the number of named storms in 2006? I assume some of these storms reach the intensity of 2005's notorious Katrina, Rita and Wilma. Do you have a feel for how many?
A. The active hurricane period that began in 1995 should continue this year, since there is no strong El Nino event present, sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are .5 - 1.5 degrees C above normal across the tropical Atlantic, and the other four indicators we look at to predict seasonal hurricane activity are all positive. However, SSTs are nearly 1 degree cooler than last year's record levels, so I am not expecting another 2005. That was a once-in-a-lifetime year. My worst-case scenario calls for another year like 2004, with 15 to 20 named storms, and two to four major hurricanes hitting the U.S. My best-case scenario is still for an active year with 15 or so named storms, but with most of the storms recurving harmlessly out to sea. This happened in 1995, when the Bermuda High set up shop further east than usual, allowing the storms to recurve before hitting the coast. There will probably be at least three Category 4 or 5 hurricanes this year, and I expect one of these will make it into the top ten list for most intense Atlantic hurricanes on record. I don't look for anything like 2005, when three of the six most intense hurricanes on record occurred.
Q. Is The Weather Underground your full-time job?
A. The Weather Underground is my full-time job, but I do a few guest lectures for the University of Michigan introductory meteorology classes.
Q. The $64,000 question, at least for people along the Emerald Coast here in Northwest Florida, is: What can we expect of the hurricane season in 2006? Specifically, do you have any feel for the number of named storms in 2006? I assume some of these storms reach the intensity of 2005's notorious Katrina, Rita and Wilma. Do you have a feel for how many?
A. The active hurricane period that began in 1995 should continue this year, since there is no strong El Nino event present, sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are .5 - 1.5 degrees C above normal across the tropical Atlantic, and the other four indicators we look at to predict seasonal hurricane activity are all positive. However, SSTs are nearly 1 degree cooler than last year's record levels, so I am not expecting another 2005. That was a once-in-a-lifetime year. My worst-case scenario calls for another year like 2004, with 15 to 20 named storms, and two to four major hurricanes hitting the U.S. My best-case scenario is still for an active year with 15 or so named storms, but with most of the storms recurving harmlessly out to sea. This happened in 1995, when the Bermuda High set up shop further east than usual, allowing the storms to recurve before hitting the coast. There will probably be at least three Category 4 or 5 hurricanes this year, and I expect one of these will make it into the top ten list for most intense Atlantic hurricanes on record. I don't look for anything like 2005, when three of the six most intense hurricanes on record occurred.
