Sunday, April 30, 2006
Heroes of the beach
good luck and thanks to all of the people helping spot the sea turtle nests this season.
We have a winner !
Yes , the "phenom" is the bracket on the windshield.
The two suction cups are the eyes...
The two suction cups are the eyes...
Strange Phenom observed on Lot #1
Moments after the Trak Hoe (big digging machine) departed from lot One, I took this picture through the car window.
On the Left is the zoomed in section of the black spot in the photo which is on the sand near the street just left of center.
Track Hoe Departs Friday Afternoon
Saturday, April 29, 2006
Goings on up the beach
First, a side by side before and after look at the dune with new sand on the left in front of the waterColor Inn.
Next, white dune in front of the WaterColor INN
And then, SEASIDE sand against the dunes
These pictures were taken moments apart. Notice how the WaterColor sand is a brighter white.
oNe mORe dAy ...
Exotic locale
Somewhere in the South Pacific ?
It's the view from our ground floor terrace looking West.
Photo Copyright © 2006 Teresa O'Neal, All Rights Reserved.
Friday, April 28, 2006
Geo tubes outside of retreat drive...
Pictures taken this morning.
Delivery cannot be made without permits.... DUH
What were They thinking?
This whole deal is Bass Ackwards...
T2
T2
Turtle Totem
Turtle is the oldest symbol for the Earth
Photo by Shawn O'Neal Copyright © 2006 All Rights Reserved
Thursday, April 27, 2006
Flower Power
I think this should be the official flower of the retreat
The Cactus flower which grows in the retreat is a symbol of a lovely neighborhood with some thorny issues.
'T' Time
Wednesday, April 26, 2006
Turtle Time
Employment Opportunity
I'm looking for a good assistant to help me keep turning all the Irons in my fires.
If any of you know someone who is dependable, hard working with good computer and web search/research/investigative skills please encourage them to send their resume to me at:
All submittals kept in strict confidence.
Must be able to pass a background check.
Excellent pay and benefits.
Gulfoasis@earthlink.net
If any of you know someone who is dependable, hard working with good computer and web search/research/investigative skills please encourage them to send their resume to me at:
All submittals kept in strict confidence.
Must be able to pass a background check.
Excellent pay and benefits.
Gulfoasis@earthlink.net
The Circle
Big Head Todd And The Monsters Circle lyrics
It seems to me, you and me,
Are chasing something.
What it is does anybody here want to know?
It seems to you, you and me,
Are forgetting something,
When love is so easily forgotten.
And if I pick you up will you drag me down?
If I run to you will you turn around?
Rise and fall turn the wheel 'cause all life
Is really just a circle.
It seems to me, you and me
Are being chased by something.
What it is has anybody here apprehended?
It seems to me, you and me
Are terrified of nothing,
When nothing is the reason we are here.
Oh, nothing at all.
And if I cry to you, will you laugh me down?
But I'm asking you to turn around.
Rise and fall turn the wheel 'cause all life
Is really just a circle.
It seems to me, you and me,
Are chasing something.
What it is does anybody here want to know?
It seems to you, you and me,
Are forgetting something,
When love is so easily forgotten.
And if I pick you up will you drag me down?
If I run to you will you turn around?
Rise and fall turn the wheel 'cause all life
Is really just a circle.
It seems to me, you and me
Are being chased by something.
What it is has anybody here apprehended?
It seems to me, you and me
Are terrified of nothing,
When nothing is the reason we are here.
Oh, nothing at all.
And if I cry to you, will you laugh me down?
But I'm asking you to turn around.
Rise and fall turn the wheel 'cause all life
Is really just a circle.
Retreat Turtle Watch Donation
I spoke with Sharon Maxwell with the South Walton Turtle Watch today regarding a $1000.00 donation she is expecting from the Retreat.
Sharon tells me that she was called last week by the Manager of the Retreat and asked to provide Turtle Watch services on the Retreat Beach starting Monday of this week.
She was told that the Retreat would like to help the cause by making a $1,000.00 donation to the South Walton Turtle watch.
Sharon explained that Turtle season starts MAY 1st and that's when they would begin their Watches for Turtle season and that she does not change the way she works because of a donation but would certainly welcome the donation.
As of this morning she has not yet seen a check from the Retreat
Sharon tells me that she was called last week by the Manager of the Retreat and asked to provide Turtle Watch services on the Retreat Beach starting Monday of this week.
She was told that the Retreat would like to help the cause by making a $1,000.00 donation to the South Walton Turtle watch.
Sharon explained that Turtle season starts MAY 1st and that's when they would begin their Watches for Turtle season and that she does not change the way she works because of a donation but would certainly welcome the donation.
As of this morning she has not yet seen a check from the Retreat
Tuesday, April 25, 2006
WaterColor Final
In Watercolor: WaterColor did not Get the approval vote of the homeowners after all.
SO the work being done putting out sand is in front of the Watercolor Inn only which
is being paid for by St. Joe.
St. Joe told us Sand was a waste of time when they wanted to assess for PROTECT-TUBES
BUT when that permit was denied by the DEP then they came back and tried to sell the SAND-ONLY solution that they had argued aganist before.
In General:
Association Board members are jumping out of association Boards in Florida faster than grunts jumping out of the planes coming back from IRAQ.
When the market slows down people start looking hard at where their money has been going. It is going to get very very ugly.
It is all going to come out.....$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$In
SO the work being done putting out sand is in front of the Watercolor Inn only which
is being paid for by St. Joe.
St. Joe told us Sand was a waste of time when they wanted to assess for PROTECT-TUBES
BUT when that permit was denied by the DEP then they came back and tried to sell the SAND-ONLY solution that they had argued aganist before.
In General:
Association Board members are jumping out of association Boards in Florida faster than grunts jumping out of the planes coming back from IRAQ.
When the market slows down people start looking hard at where their money has been going. It is going to get very very ugly.
It is all going to come out.....$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$In
Talk to the Hand
Costa Rica Asks Gov. Bush to protect Turtles
5 days in April...
retreat SignDango
My bad. I got a call from THE MAN speaking through Charlene, probably during the board meeting asking me to remove my FOR SALE sign in front of Ms. Grigsby's home because it is the wrong shade of green.
That's what I get for using the color of The presidente of the boards wife's signs on Lots 89 & 90. I noticed that her signs are still up.
Anyway, I removed it within the hour and will have the new one up soon.
I do want to thank Charlene(a good lady with a bad gig imho) for asking Mr. Estes to remove the Non-Standard metal framed sign in front of his property as he did remove it promptly.
There are still many non-standard real estate signs in the retreat though.
Lot 9 (coastal properties- WRONG GREEN)
The Blu Props sign (see Picture)
And several signs are now equipped with Plastic boxes for flyers. Are these allowed ?
All signs should be the color of the Two lighter colored green signs pictured at the top of the page.
A special thanks to Mary Stephens for her help in this matter.
I think the Retreat should ban all Real estate signs larger than 12" x 12" because they are visual clutter.
Monday, April 24, 2006
The Promise
Snow kissed marshmellow puffs of love
We wait for the flight of the Angel Doves
With light filled hearts graced from above
We look to the east for the golden haired Son
With great cheer and good will
We fill our cups with the bounty of life
The fullness to come free from strife
The Promise, shawn O'Neal, Copyright 2006 © All Rights reserved
We wait for the flight of the Angel Doves
With light filled hearts graced from above
We look to the east for the golden haired Son
With great cheer and good will
We fill our cups with the bounty of life
The fullness to come free from strife
The Promise, shawn O'Neal, Copyright 2006 © All Rights reserved
Saturday, April 22, 2006
MEADiation
I hear neighbors from time to time telling me that Mr. Mead upsets them or he is "out there" , etc. I will admit that I have been agitated a time or two by statements he has made.
However, one must remember that Mr. Mead works for the Association/Board.
The statements he makes may or may not entirely reflect his own personal views on matters.
He has that big smile and that boyish grin that will serve him well if he decides to enter politics in the future. I have found him to be quite friendly and personable the few times that we have met.
George R. Mead, II (Erick Mead) is a civil litigator with a broad litigation and counseling practice. He has a background in aviation, government contracting and claims during almost ten years in the United States Navy. He practices exclusively in the civil arena, and handles cases at the trial and appellate level before all Florida Courts, Federal District Courts, the United States Eleventh Circuit Court of Appeals and the Court of Federal Claims.
Employment law is a common focus of his practice in both litigation and counseling. Mr. Mead has routinely lectured in the employment law area, both in professional seminars, and as adjunct faculty in the Florida State University system.
I suspect Mr. Mead is very familiar with MEADiation.
A good attorney is like a fine instrument.
The hand that directs this instrument, is the board of directors.
D E P F D E P F D E P F D E P F D E P
I spoke with the DEP today and I am So Glad that we are not going to be taken to the woodshed by these folks.
They have already arrested several boys up the beach doing work on the beach without a permit and they are now in jail with $70,000 in fines so far to date.
According to Sharon Maxwell ( that turtle watch lady to most of you) Walton county went from being the least armored county to the most armored county in the State of Florida in One year.
There is no flying under the radar in Walton county anymore .
The DEP has taken a "special" interest in Walton County.
The county has already stopped issuing permits even to put sand only on the beaches as we are getting to close to Turtle season which is evidenced by the fact that there are already 5 dead sea turtles in Walton county Before Turtle season starts May 1st.
They have already arrested several boys up the beach doing work on the beach without a permit and they are now in jail with $70,000 in fines so far to date.
According to Sharon Maxwell ( that turtle watch lady to most of you) Walton county went from being the least armored county to the most armored county in the State of Florida in One year.
There is no flying under the radar in Walton county anymore .
The DEP has taken a "special" interest in Walton County.
The county has already stopped issuing permits even to put sand only on the beaches as we are getting to close to Turtle season which is evidenced by the fact that there are already 5 dead sea turtles in Walton county Before Turtle season starts May 1st.
Friday, April 21, 2006
THE WORD
From the first letter of Paul of Tarsus to the school at Corinth:
When I was a child, I spake as a child, I understood as a child, I thought as a child: but when I became a man, I put away childish things.
Chapter 13, verse 11
When I was a child, I spake as a child, I understood as a child, I thought as a child: but when I became a man, I put away childish things.
Chapter 13, verse 11
Walton County issues STOP ORDER to Retreat
Apollo prepares to Leap
John, a brother of one of the owners of Apollo told me they plan to enter the beach through Lot #1
Is this what the Board is relying on?
Notice the areas in BOLD below and ask yourself if you would want to rely on this....
state of florida
OFFICE OF THE GOVERNOR
EXECUTIVE ORDER NUMBER 06-83
(Hurricane Wilma Extension)
WHEREAS, the State of Florida continues to recover from the cumulative impact of a devastating season of tropical storms and hurricanes, beginning with Tropical Storm Arlene on June 11, 2005, followed by Hurricane(s) Dennis on July 10, 2005, Hurricane Katrina on August 25, 2005, Hurricane Rita on September 20, 2005, and culminating with Hurricane Wilma on October 24, 2005; and
WHEREAS, on February 13, 2006, Executive Order 06-31 was issued extending and incorporating Executive Order 05-234, expediting repair of roofs; and
WHEREAS, Executive Order 06-31 also ratified designated supplemental orders pertaining to temporary housing, rental housing and Medicaid, which were issued pursuant to or incorporated by the State Coordinating Officer and Deputy State Coordinating Officers under the authority of Executive Order 05-219, 05-234 and 05-260, declaring states of emergency; and
WHEREAS, Executive Order 06-31 expires on April 13, 2006; and
WHEREAS, select waivers of statutory authority remain essential to expedite recovery and enable residents, businesses, and local, state and federal government agencies to continue working together to rebuild infrastructure, restore vital services and provide temporary housing and medical and financial assistance;
NOW, THEREFORE, I, JEB BUSH, as Governor of Florida, by virtue of the authority vested in me by Article IV, Section 1(a) of the Florida Constitution and by the Florida Emergency Management Act, as amended, and all other applicable laws, do hereby promulgate the following Executive Order, to take immediate effect:
Section 1. Because of the foregoing conditions, I, hereby, find that the continuation of the activities needed to recover from the series of disasters beginning with Tropical Storm Arlene and culminating with Hurricane Wilma in 2005, is of critical importance to the State of Florida. I further find that the interruption of these activities would aggravate the devastation caused by the hurricanes and would, therefore, significantly threaten the State�s recovery and relief effort.
Section 2. I hereby incorporate and extend Executive Order 06-31 only to the extent it ratifies the supplemental orders attached hereto as Exhibit A and to the extent Executive Order 06-31 extends and incorporates Executive Order 05-234, so that the expiration date will coincide with the expiration of this Executive Order.
Section 3. This Executive Order shall expire sixty (60) days from the date hereof unless extended.
IN TESTIMONY WHEREOF, I have hereunto set my hand and caused the Great Seal of the State of Florida to be affixed, at Tallahassee, the Capitol, this 13th day of April, 2006.
______________________________________________
GOVERNOR
ATTEST:
_______________________________
SECRETARY OF STATE
Exhibit A -- Extended Supplemental Order(s):
EVENT EXTEND
Identified by Tracker #
KATRINA 1075 -- MEDICAID/TANF CASH ASSISTANCE
1066 � RENTAL HOUSING FHFC REQUIREMENTS
state of florida
OFFICE OF THE GOVERNOR
EXECUTIVE ORDER NUMBER 06-83
(Hurricane Wilma Extension)
WHEREAS, the State of Florida continues to recover from the cumulative impact of a devastating season of tropical storms and hurricanes, beginning with Tropical Storm Arlene on June 11, 2005, followed by Hurricane(s) Dennis on July 10, 2005, Hurricane Katrina on August 25, 2005, Hurricane Rita on September 20, 2005, and culminating with Hurricane Wilma on October 24, 2005; and
WHEREAS, on February 13, 2006, Executive Order 06-31 was issued extending and incorporating Executive Order 05-234, expediting repair of roofs; and
WHEREAS, Executive Order 06-31 also ratified designated supplemental orders pertaining to temporary housing, rental housing and Medicaid, which were issued pursuant to or incorporated by the State Coordinating Officer and Deputy State Coordinating Officers under the authority of Executive Order 05-219, 05-234 and 05-260, declaring states of emergency; and
WHEREAS, Executive Order 06-31 expires on April 13, 2006; and
WHEREAS, select waivers of statutory authority remain essential to expedite recovery and enable residents, businesses, and local, state and federal government agencies to continue working together to rebuild infrastructure, restore vital services and provide temporary housing and medical and financial assistance;
NOW, THEREFORE, I, JEB BUSH, as Governor of Florida, by virtue of the authority vested in me by Article IV, Section 1(a) of the Florida Constitution and by the Florida Emergency Management Act, as amended, and all other applicable laws, do hereby promulgate the following Executive Order, to take immediate effect:
Section 1. Because of the foregoing conditions, I, hereby, find that the continuation of the activities needed to recover from the series of disasters beginning with Tropical Storm Arlene and culminating with Hurricane Wilma in 2005, is of critical importance to the State of Florida. I further find that the interruption of these activities would aggravate the devastation caused by the hurricanes and would, therefore, significantly threaten the State�s recovery and relief effort.
Section 2. I hereby incorporate and extend Executive Order 06-31 only to the extent it ratifies the supplemental orders attached hereto as Exhibit A and to the extent Executive Order 06-31 extends and incorporates Executive Order 05-234, so that the expiration date will coincide with the expiration of this Executive Order.
Section 3. This Executive Order shall expire sixty (60) days from the date hereof unless extended.
IN TESTIMONY WHEREOF, I have hereunto set my hand and caused the Great Seal of the State of Florida to be affixed, at Tallahassee, the Capitol, this 13th day of April, 2006.
______________________________________________
GOVERNOR
ATTEST:
_______________________________
SECRETARY OF STATE
Exhibit A -- Extended Supplemental Order(s):
EVENT EXTEND
Identified by Tracker #
KATRINA 1075 -- MEDICAID/TANF CASH ASSISTANCE
1066 � RENTAL HOUSING FHFC REQUIREMENTS
“Coastal Hazard Notification” bill
The Caribbean Conservation Corporation, through its Sea Turtle Survival League program, is leading efforts to safeguard globally important sea turtle nesting beaches in Florida. The thin ribbon of sand surrounding the Florida peninsula is home to about 90% of all sea turtle nesting in the continental United States
· CCC worked with legislators to draft a “Coastal Hazard Notification” bill. The bill requires that the seller of real property on the coast provide a disclosure to the buyer that the property may be subject to erosion. The disclosure also provides directions to prospective buyers for determining whether the State has declared a particular stretch of beach as “critically eroding.” It also notifies the buyer that sea turtle protection laws may impact future construction activities on the property. The purpose of the legislation is to increase transparency in the sales transaction, to help avoid litigation, and to increase public awareness of the dynamic, sometime risky nature of building and living on the Florida coastline. Senate Bill 0964: Relating to Coastal Property Sales/Disclosures.
Florida may soon require disclosure to buyers of property in beach front associations that have certain types of beach armoring such as Geo-Tubes due to the fact that such systems require constant upkeep and have fines and/or property liens which can be imposed by state and federal agencies if the tubes are left uncovered during Turtle nesting season.
A performance lien may even be placed on the entire sub-division
· CCC worked with legislators to draft a “Coastal Hazard Notification” bill. The bill requires that the seller of real property on the coast provide a disclosure to the buyer that the property may be subject to erosion. The disclosure also provides directions to prospective buyers for determining whether the State has declared a particular stretch of beach as “critically eroding.” It also notifies the buyer that sea turtle protection laws may impact future construction activities on the property. The purpose of the legislation is to increase transparency in the sales transaction, to help avoid litigation, and to increase public awareness of the dynamic, sometime risky nature of building and living on the Florida coastline. Senate Bill 0964: Relating to Coastal Property Sales/Disclosures.
Florida may soon require disclosure to buyers of property in beach front associations that have certain types of beach armoring such as Geo-Tubes due to the fact that such systems require constant upkeep and have fines and/or property liens which can be imposed by state and federal agencies if the tubes are left uncovered during Turtle nesting season.
A performance lien may even be placed on the entire sub-division
REAL ESTATE MAY BE AFFECTED
I intend to speak with the Florida Association of realtors Legal hotline as well as the local realtors association ECAR, to determine the possible ramifications of any lawsuits between the Retreat and county, state, and/or Federal agencies as to what extra disclosures may be needed to buyers and other information if any required on the multiple listing service (MLS)
Realtors face serious action for failure to disclose any known factors that could affect a property they are selling.
Forms may be needed to aviod lawsuits by buyers after a sale.
If in doubt, Disclose
As one or more of the Board members has a property for sale and/or a real estate agent as a spouse or an agent representing them and many homeowners have an agent listing their property this could become an added burden to the Retreat and those who work in the Real Estate business in South Walton County.
Realtors face serious action for failure to disclose any known factors that could affect a property they are selling.
Forms may be needed to aviod lawsuits by buyers after a sale.
If in doubt, Disclose
As one or more of the Board members has a property for sale and/or a real estate agent as a spouse or an agent representing them and many homeowners have an agent listing their property this could become an added burden to the Retreat and those who work in the Real Estate business in South Walton County.
Serious Fines
Walton County:
Violating a STOP ORDER PERMIT (for work started without a county permit)
$500 to $5000 a day
Arrest Warrent for Individuals responsible for violation
State of Florida FDEP (the DEP)
$10,000 per day
Various other possible actions including Liens
Federal Government:
Proceeding without a TAKE PERMIT (requires a habitat conservation plan)
US Fish and Wildlife endangered species act violations
Turtle season starts May 1
Felony charges for responsible persons
Disturbing a sea turtle nest fine $5000 per egg
Other violations for disturbing sea Oats, Bird and Mouse habitat
*this list is not comprehensive.
Violating a STOP ORDER PERMIT (for work started without a county permit)
$500 to $5000 a day
Arrest Warrent for Individuals responsible for violation
State of Florida FDEP (the DEP)
$10,000 per day
Various other possible actions including Liens
Federal Government:
Proceeding without a TAKE PERMIT (requires a habitat conservation plan)
US Fish and Wildlife endangered species act violations
Turtle season starts May 1
Felony charges for responsible persons
Disturbing a sea turtle nest fine $5000 per egg
Other violations for disturbing sea Oats, Bird and Mouse habitat
*this list is not comprehensive.
Serious Business
Walton County beach nourishment suspended
April 20, 2006
A Kemp’s Ridley sea turtle was killed early Thursday morning during the dredging process for the Walton County and city of Destin beach restoration project, said Tracy Louthain, public relations manager for the Walton County Tourist Development Council.
The project has been shut down indefinitely until the permitting agencies review make recommendations for their next steps of action, Louthain said.
The project has restored 14,700 feet of beach; 39 percent of the total project and approximately 54 percent of the Walton County portion of the project.
Walton County has taken steps to mitigate the chances of sea turtles being injured or killed.
A trawler, a small boat with nets, monitors the waters around the Liberty Island dredge when is it dredging from the borrow site off the East Pass. The trawler will capture turtles and release them in a safe area, Louthain said.
This was the second sea turtle killed by dredging in Walton County. The county has relocated 15 Kemp's and 17 loggerhead turtles, Louthain said.
When a turtle is killed all nourishment activities are shut down while the Corps of Engineers and U.S. Fish and Wildlife review the situation and discuss mitigation procedures, Louthain said.
Louthain will not speculate when nourishment will continue.
April 20, 2006
A Kemp’s Ridley sea turtle was killed early Thursday morning during the dredging process for the Walton County and city of Destin beach restoration project, said Tracy Louthain, public relations manager for the Walton County Tourist Development Council.
The project has been shut down indefinitely until the permitting agencies review make recommendations for their next steps of action, Louthain said.
The project has restored 14,700 feet of beach; 39 percent of the total project and approximately 54 percent of the Walton County portion of the project.
Walton County has taken steps to mitigate the chances of sea turtles being injured or killed.
A trawler, a small boat with nets, monitors the waters around the Liberty Island dredge when is it dredging from the borrow site off the East Pass. The trawler will capture turtles and release them in a safe area, Louthain said.
This was the second sea turtle killed by dredging in Walton County. The county has relocated 15 Kemp's and 17 loggerhead turtles, Louthain said.
When a turtle is killed all nourishment activities are shut down while the Corps of Engineers and U.S. Fish and Wildlife review the situation and discuss mitigation procedures, Louthain said.
Louthain will not speculate when nourishment will continue.
Thursday, April 20, 2006
Apollo has landed...
Apollo, the Company the board has enlisted for Geo-tubes has parked several pieces of their equipment on lot # 1 , the beach front lot next to the Inn at Blue Mt.
It's unclear at this point if they intend to enter onto the beach by making a driveway
out of lot #1 .
Some have suggested that the Board wants the authorities to stop them as soon as possible so they can move on to the next chapter of their lives which will be trying to sue the county, the state of florida and/or the Feds, etc. to prove that protecting their property is above any existing laws that may get broken in the process....
It would be amusing and even interesting to watch this play out if our neighborhood was not being used as the crash test dummy by the board in their desire to create new laws....At our expense.
It's unclear at this point if they intend to enter onto the beach by making a driveway
out of lot #1 .
Some have suggested that the Board wants the authorities to stop them as soon as possible so they can move on to the next chapter of their lives which will be trying to sue the county, the state of florida and/or the Feds, etc. to prove that protecting their property is above any existing laws that may get broken in the process....
It would be amusing and even interesting to watch this play out if our neighborhood was not being used as the crash test dummy by the board in their desire to create new laws....At our expense.
Wednesday, April 19, 2006
Kemp's Ridley on Retreat Beach
According to the expert I talked to, this turtle in the picture here that was found on the retreat beach
was an endangered Kemp's ridley sea turtle and a nesting female at that.
This Turtle , being lighter in weight has tracks that can be shallow and more easily
removed by the winds on the beach making discovery and protection of the nests that much harder....
Fools rush in...
where Angels fear to tread.
Current Board plans that have been reported to us:
PBS&J is Project MGMT. company
Sand is being sourced by the board
Apollo Environmental, a Texas outfit has the Geo-tube contract Apollo
Permits... We know of no permits granted by county, state, or federal officials.
That they intend to start next week if not sooner
Current Board plans that have been reported to us:
PBS&J is Project MGMT. company
Sand is being sourced by the board
Apollo Environmental, a Texas outfit has the Geo-tube contract Apollo
Permits... We know of no permits granted by county, state, or federal officials.
That they intend to start next week if not sooner
A BAD OMEN
One week before the Association plans to proceed without permits.....
A Dead Sea Turtle washes up on the Beach at the Retreat....
Palm Toast ?
What's going on with those Palm trees on The Main Drag ?
They look all black at the bottom.
They look all black at the bottom.
Tuesday, April 18, 2006
Hurricane alley forecast
The board votes to...
To construct a 30' Tall Tiki Totem at each end of the Retreat Beach and one in the middle to ward off the evil Hurricane spirits and protect the dunes.
Fu Dog temple statues from china were nixed due to a feeling on the part of some that we are too far away from China for them to be very potent.
Had you going there did I ? Or are you catching on to my sense of Humor.
Like I always say, I had to Laugh, so that I wouldn't Cry.
The Retreat Beach is looking Very Wide and Higher too.
In fact when you step off the west Walkover you are now walking DOWN the dune to get to the flat beach.
I think I might take some pictures of the "Renourished beach" in Sandestin and some of the Retreat beach to compare.....
It will be interesting to see how we look in comparsion...
Stay Tuned....Retreaters.
Fu Dog temple statues from china were nixed due to a feeling on the part of some that we are too far away from China for them to be very potent.
Had you going there did I ? Or are you catching on to my sense of Humor.
Like I always say, I had to Laugh, so that I wouldn't Cry.
The Retreat Beach is looking Very Wide and Higher too.
In fact when you step off the west Walkover you are now walking DOWN the dune to get to the flat beach.
I think I might take some pictures of the "Renourished beach" in Sandestin and some of the Retreat beach to compare.....
It will be interesting to see how we look in comparsion...
Stay Tuned....Retreaters.
Monday, April 17, 2006
More peace & Love
I'm back Lads.
The Pogues are a celtic Rock band that's been called an Irish National Treasure .
Also noticed them trying to get the Sand moving equipment working at WaterColor this afternoon with only 13 days left to Turtle time....
Don't get caught standing downwind of a sand covered Seawall on a windy day like today either....all grit and no grace....
Saturday, April 15, 2006
Happy Easter Kids
Last minute votes start Sand Race.......
I talked with the contractors who are to begin a race with time Monday APRIL 17,
to put sand onto WaterColor's beach 10 days later than they wanted to start.
And this was with everyone standing by ready to go.
Very elaborate set-up with a conveyor system etc.
13 days......to May 1st
to put sand onto WaterColor's beach 10 days later than they wanted to start.
And this was with everyone standing by ready to go.
Very elaborate set-up with a conveyor system etc.
13 days......to May 1st
Friday, April 14, 2006
peace and love
Thursday, April 13, 2006
Like the lady says...
On the one hand you have the possibility of law suits coming from Gulf front owners if the board can't provide geo-tube protection which gets even more weird when three of those gulf front owners are also on the Board.
And on the other hand, You've got the near certainty of personal law suits being filed against each board member individually which they will have to spend their own money to defend if they try to proceed without the proper permits.
It's Thursday sing a long ....
(sonny curtis)
Breakin’ rocks in the hot sun
I fought the law and the law won
I needed money ’cause I had none
I fought the law and the law won
I left my baby and it feels so bad
Guess my race is run
She’s the best girl that I ever had
I fought the law and the law won
I fought the law and the law won
Robbin’ people with a six-gun
I fought the law and the law won
I lost my girl and I lost my fun
I fought the law and the law won
I left my baby and it feels so bad
Guess my race is run
She’s the best girl that I ever had
I fought the law and the law won
I fought the law and the law won
Breakin’ rocks in the hot sun
I fought the law and the law won
I needed money ’cause I had none
I fought the law and the law won
I left my baby and it feels so bad
Guess my race is run
She’s the best girl that I ever had
I fought the law and the law won
I fought the law and the law won
Robbin’ people with a six-gun
I fought the law and the law won
I lost my girl and I lost my fun
I fought the law and the law won
I left my baby and it feels so bad
Guess my race is run
She’s the best girl that I ever had
I fought the law and the law won
I fought the law and the law won
Wednesday, April 12, 2006
And next, a reading.....
I dedicate this poem to the bad boys from ENRON and all boys disguised as men.
Foolish schoolish
Foolish foolish
Schoolboy schoolish
No permish oh well
Tell the MAN to go to Hell
Look like a fool
Become a laughing matter
Get shut out
Like a lousy batter
Your big stick broken
your games run its course
Foolish foolish schoolboy shame
And for this mess you are to blame
Thick as a brick
Transparent as glass
With a block for a head
And the sense of an ass
Copyright © 2006 Shawn Patrick O'Neal, ALL RIGHTS RESERVED
Foolish schoolish
Foolish foolish
Schoolboy schoolish
No permish oh well
Tell the MAN to go to Hell
Look like a fool
Become a laughing matter
Get shut out
Like a lousy batter
Your big stick broken
your games run its course
Foolish foolish schoolboy shame
And for this mess you are to blame
Thick as a brick
Transparent as glass
With a block for a head
And the sense of an ass
Copyright © 2006 Shawn Patrick O'Neal, ALL RIGHTS RESERVED
Well, what are other's doing ?
WATERCOLOR:
I spoke to one of the two homeowners who is on the Board at WATERCOLOR about the vote that was to be counted on April 7th regarding putting sand on the beach at WaterColor to be completed before Turtle Season.
He told me it looked like it would not get enough votes to pass.
WaterColor will not proceed without the proper Permits.
SEASIDE: Current issue of Seaside times
Brad pickel, Director of the TDC and a Marine Scientist "we're seeing the beaches coming back, Beach width is returning. As the width returns, we'll start to see the elevation return."
The Seaside Development Corp. is currently working on nourishing the dune system from the Seaside pavilion to the coleman pavilion. STATE PERMITS allow the project to continue until May 1, though an extension may be applied for and granted.---WHY?
Because THEY HAVE STATE PERMITS.
Fencing will be installed and sea oats will be planted.
This type of dune restoration project mimics the natural process of beach and dune formation.
Joe Herrmann, construction manager says that this type of dune restoration project
is environmentally low-impact. Since there are no man-made objects like seawalls or GEOTUBES,NO INCIDENTAL TAKE PERMITS ARE NECESSARY.
Incidental take permits cover the loss of threatened species and habitat with A FEE
PAID TO THE STATE.
The fee is applied to programs that mitigate the losses.
To the Board:
--Penalties for violating the endangered species act are severe.
--Killing the endangered Marine sea Turtles is not good for your property values or your reputations folks.
--your McMansion is not more important than a threatened species, that's what insurance is for.
We'll have to get the Network TV crews down here for this Fiasco....
The State/Feds might just decide to make an example out of the Retreat so people don't think they can so easily dismiss the law.
I spoke to one of the two homeowners who is on the Board at WATERCOLOR about the vote that was to be counted on April 7th regarding putting sand on the beach at WaterColor to be completed before Turtle Season.
He told me it looked like it would not get enough votes to pass.
WaterColor will not proceed without the proper Permits.
SEASIDE: Current issue of Seaside times
Brad pickel, Director of the TDC and a Marine Scientist "we're seeing the beaches coming back, Beach width is returning. As the width returns, we'll start to see the elevation return."
The Seaside Development Corp. is currently working on nourishing the dune system from the Seaside pavilion to the coleman pavilion. STATE PERMITS allow the project to continue until May 1, though an extension may be applied for and granted.---WHY?
Because THEY HAVE STATE PERMITS.
Fencing will be installed and sea oats will be planted.
This type of dune restoration project mimics the natural process of beach and dune formation.
Joe Herrmann, construction manager says that this type of dune restoration project
is environmentally low-impact. Since there are no man-made objects like seawalls or GEOTUBES,NO INCIDENTAL TAKE PERMITS ARE NECESSARY.
Incidental take permits cover the loss of threatened species and habitat with A FEE
PAID TO THE STATE.
The fee is applied to programs that mitigate the losses.
To the Board:
--Penalties for violating the endangered species act are severe.
--Killing the endangered Marine sea Turtles is not good for your property values or your reputations folks.
--your McMansion is not more important than a threatened species, that's what insurance is for.
We'll have to get the Network TV crews down here for this Fiasco....
The State/Feds might just decide to make an example out of the Retreat so people don't think they can so easily dismiss the law.
Tuesday, April 11, 2006
WALK THE LINE
Chapter 161 also provides the DEP with power to impose civil penalties for
any coastal permitting violations. Section 161.054, Fla. Stat. (2001). If a
person willfully violates, or refuses to comply with, any requirements for
coastal permitting, the DEP may impose a fine of up to $10,000 per day.
Section 161.054(1), Fla. Stat. (2001). In addition, if any coastal
permitting violation, including by gross negligence, causes any damage to
the coastal environment, then the violator will be liable to the DEP for
that damage. Section 161.054(2), Fla. Stat. (2001). Any damages awarded will
become a statutory lien upon the violator's real and personal property.
Section 161.054(3), Fla. Stat. (2001). The DEP will deny a permit to any
applicant with such a lien. Section 161.053(5), Fla. Stat. (2001).
any coastal permitting violations. Section 161.054, Fla. Stat. (2001). If a
person willfully violates, or refuses to comply with, any requirements for
coastal permitting, the DEP may impose a fine of up to $10,000 per day.
Section 161.054(1), Fla. Stat. (2001). In addition, if any coastal
permitting violation, including by gross negligence, causes any damage to
the coastal environment, then the violator will be liable to the DEP for
that damage. Section 161.054(2), Fla. Stat. (2001). Any damages awarded will
become a statutory lien upon the violator's real and personal property.
Section 161.054(3), Fla. Stat. (2001). The DEP will deny a permit to any
applicant with such a lien. Section 161.053(5), Fla. Stat. (2001).
More Fun and Games at the Retreat
After reviewing the Boards letter to the Association members of April 7th for the past few days the first thing that occurs to me is that it is obvious that Wealth and intelligence are perhaps mutually exclusive in the Retreat at least for some of us.
I would never allow my name to be placed on like this letter which I consider to be no better than a piece of trash.
But just for fun let's look at the Boards strategy....
1. Damn the torpedoes full speed ahead, until someone stops them...
And the authorities have the means available to stop them.
2. Then blame these people who stop them from proceeding without any permits as the bad guys to make themselves look better.
They may decide that it's better to be sued personally for proceeding without the permits than to disappoint the three board members who own Gulf front lots. Just a guess.
3. Oh, and they forgot to tell you in their letter that the reason the original permit is still pending is because they did not send in the $29K permit fee or the additional information requested by the DEP.
Negligent? ...................What do you think?
4. The boards opinion of Prudent seems to be to do what they feel like doing VS. what's approved by the lawful authorities.
5. But what really gets fun is that we have the Board and the President of the board
with a room full of witnesses and on tape with our attorney present saying multiple
times that the board NEVER intended to proceed with any work without the required permits.
I leave it to you to decide what a person who promises not to do something and then does that very thing may be called .
6. They also didn't tell you (I know they did not tell me) that this situation could have been avoided if the 24 Gulf Front lot owners would have stepped up and paid for the work on their own personal
property themselves to begin with like so many owners already have up and down the beach.
I would never allow my name to be placed on like this letter which I consider to be no better than a piece of trash.
But just for fun let's look at the Boards strategy....
1. Damn the torpedoes full speed ahead, until someone stops them...
And the authorities have the means available to stop them.
2. Then blame these people who stop them from proceeding without any permits as the bad guys to make themselves look better.
They may decide that it's better to be sued personally for proceeding without the permits than to disappoint the three board members who own Gulf front lots. Just a guess.
3. Oh, and they forgot to tell you in their letter that the reason the original permit is still pending is because they did not send in the $29K permit fee or the additional information requested by the DEP.
Negligent? ...................What do you think?
4. The boards opinion of Prudent seems to be to do what they feel like doing VS. what's approved by the lawful authorities.
5. But what really gets fun is that we have the Board and the President of the board
with a room full of witnesses and on tape with our attorney present saying multiple
times that the board NEVER intended to proceed with any work without the required permits.
I leave it to you to decide what a person who promises not to do something and then does that very thing may be called .
6. They also didn't tell you (I know they did not tell me) that this situation could have been avoided if the 24 Gulf Front lot owners would have stepped up and paid for the work on their own personal
property themselves to begin with like so many owners already have up and down the beach.
Morning Walk
Me and Jester the wonder pup were walking in the RT this morning.
The Palm Trees planted in the Center Blvd. right before the annual HO meeting in November are not looking so good. They don't look like they grew much if any.
From the East walkover looking West we saw two workmen jumping up and down on the Dune edge behind the house John Willis is building on the beach between the Ballards and the Flauts. They were making the dune edge collapse. It's hard to get good help these days.
The Palm Trees planted in the Center Blvd. right before the annual HO meeting in November are not looking so good. They don't look like they grew much if any.
From the East walkover looking West we saw two workmen jumping up and down on the Dune edge behind the house John Willis is building on the beach between the Ballards and the Flauts. They were making the dune edge collapse. It's hard to get good help these days.
Monday, April 10, 2006
CHIMNEY ENVY
I think the Erbesfield's white brick Chimney has to take top prize at least for now in the Retreat "Chimney Envy" contest.
Eat your heart out people.
It's not about just being tall or having multiple chimney's which some people say should Compete in a different class,
I mean, this Chimney has more square footage inside of it than a Sherpa's hut in the Himalayas.
It's as if the whole house is built from the chimney down.
Congratulations !
Eat your heart out people.
It's not about just being tall or having multiple chimney's which some people say should Compete in a different class,
I mean, this Chimney has more square footage inside of it than a Sherpa's hut in the Himalayas.
It's as if the whole house is built from the chimney down.
Congratulations !
Global warming stopped in 1998 ?
From 04/09/06
There IS a problem with global warming... it stopped in 1998
By Bob Carter
(Filed: 09/04/2006)
For many years now, human-caused climate change has been viewed as a large and urgent problem. In truth, however, the biggest part of the problem is neither environmental nor scientific, but a self-created political fiasco. Consider the simple fact, drawn from the official temperature records of the Climate Research Unit at the University of East Anglia, that for the years 1998-2005 global average temperature did not increase (there was actually a slight decrease, though not at a rate that differs significantly from zero).
Yes, you did read that right. And also, yes, this eight-year period of temperature stasis did coincide with society's continued power station and SUV-inspired pumping of yet more carbon dioxide into the atmosphere.
In response to these facts, a global warming devotee will chuckle and say "how silly to judge climate change over such a short period". Yet in the next breath, the same person will assure you that the 28-year-long period of warming which occurred between 1970 and 1998 constitutes a dangerous (and man-made) warming. Tosh. Our devotee will also pass by the curious additional facts that a period of similar warming occurred between 1918 and 1940, well prior to the greatest phase of world industrialisation, and that cooling occurred between 1940 and 1965, at precisely the time that human emissions were increasing at their greatest rate.
Does something not strike you as odd here? That industrial carbon dioxide is not the primary cause of earth's recent decadal-scale temperature changes doesn't seem at all odd to many thousands of independent scientists. They have long appreciated - ever since the early 1990s, when the global warming bandwagon first started to roll behind the gravy train of the UN Inter-governmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) - that such short-term climate fluctuations are chiefly of natural origin. Yet the public appears to be largely convinced otherwise. How is this possible?
Since the early 1990s, the columns of many leading newspapers and magazines, worldwide, have carried an increasing stream of alarmist letters and articles on hypothetical, human-caused climate change. Each such alarmist article is larded with words such as "if", "might", "could", "probably", "perhaps", "expected", "projected" or "modelled" - and many involve such deep dreaming, or ignorance of scientific facts and principles, that they are akin to nonsense.
The problem here is not that of climate change per se, but rather that of the sophisticated scientific brainwashing that has been inflicted on the public, bureaucrats and politicians alike. Governments generally choose not to receive policy advice on climate from independent scientists. Rather, they seek guidance from their own self-interested science bureaucracies and senior advisers, or from the IPCC itself. No matter how accurate it may be, cautious and politically non-correct science advice is not welcomed in Westminster, and nor is it widely reported.
Marketed under the imprimatur of the IPCC, the bladder-trembling and now infamous hockey-stick diagram that shows accelerating warming during the 20th century - a statistical construct by scientist Michael Mann and co-workers from mostly tree ring records - has been a seminal image of the climate scaremongering campaign. Thanks to the work of a Canadian statistician, Stephen McIntyre, and others, this graph is now known to be deeply flawed.
There are other reasons, too, why the public hears so little in detail from those scientists who approach climate change issues rationally, the so-called climate sceptics. Most are to do with intimidation against speaking out, which operates intensely on several parallel fronts.
First, most government scientists are gagged from making public comment on contentious issues, their employing organisations instead making use of public relations experts to craft carefully tailored, frisbee-science press releases. Second, scientists are under intense pressure to conform with the prevailing paradigm of climate alarmism if they wish to receive funding for their research. Third, members of the Establishment have spoken declamatory words on the issue, and the kingdom's subjects are expected to listen.
On the alarmist campaign trail, the UK's Chief Scientific Adviser, Sir David King, is thus reported as saying that global warming is so bad that Antarctica is likely to be the world's only habitable continent by the end of this century. Warming devotee and former Chairman of Shell, Lord [Ron] Oxburgh, reportedly agrees with another rash statement of King's, that climate change is a bigger threat than terrorism. And goodly Archbishop Rowan Williams, who self-evidently understands little about the science, has warned of "millions, billions" of deaths as a result of global warming and threatened Mr Blair with the wrath of the climate God unless he acts. By betraying the public's trust in their positions of influence, so do the great and good become the small and silly.
Two simple graphs provide needed context, and exemplify the dynamic, fluctuating nature of climate change. The first is a temperature curve for the last six million years, which shows a three-million year period when it was several degrees warmer than today, followed by a three-million year cooling trend which was accompanied by an increase in the magnitude of the pervasive, higher frequency, cold and warm climate cycles. During the last three such warm (interglacial) periods, temperatures at high latitudes were as much as 5 degrees warmer than today's. The second graph shows the average global temperature over the last eight years, which has proved to be a period of stasis.
The essence of the issue is this. Climate changes naturally all the time, partly in predictable cycles, and partly in unpredictable shorter rhythms and rapid episodic shifts, some of the causes of which remain unknown. We are fortunate that our modern societies have developed during the last 10,000 years of benignly warm, interglacial climate. But for more than 90 per cent of the last two million years, the climate has been colder, and generally much colder, than today. The reality of the climate record is that a sudden natural cooling is far more to be feared, and will do infinitely more social and economic damage, than the late 20th century phase of gentle warming.
The British Government urgently needs to recast the sources from which it draws its climate advice. The shrill alarmism of its public advisers, and the often eco-fundamentalist policy initiatives that bubble up from the depths of the Civil Service, have all long since been detached from science reality. Intern-ationally, the IPCC is a deeply flawed organisation, as acknowledged in a recent House of Lords report, and the Kyoto Protocol has proved a costly flop. Clearly, the wrong horses have been backed.
As mooted recently by Tony Blair, perhaps the time has come for Britain to join instead the new Asia-Pacific Partnership on Clean Development and Climate (AP6), whose six member countries are committed to the development of new technologies to improve environmental outcomes. There, at least, some real solutions are likely to emerge for improving energy efficiency and reducing pollution.
Informal discussions have already begun about a new AP6 audit body, designed to vet rigorously the science advice that the Partnership receives, including from the IPCC. Can Britain afford not to be there?
• Prof Bob Carter is a geologist at James Cook University, Queensland, engaged in paleoclimate research
© Copyright of Telegraph Group Limited 2006. Terms & Conditions of reading.
Commercial information. Privacy and Cookie Policy.
There IS a problem with global warming... it stopped in 1998
By Bob Carter
(Filed: 09/04/2006)
For many years now, human-caused climate change has been viewed as a large and urgent problem. In truth, however, the biggest part of the problem is neither environmental nor scientific, but a self-created political fiasco. Consider the simple fact, drawn from the official temperature records of the Climate Research Unit at the University of East Anglia, that for the years 1998-2005 global average temperature did not increase (there was actually a slight decrease, though not at a rate that differs significantly from zero).
Yes, you did read that right. And also, yes, this eight-year period of temperature stasis did coincide with society's continued power station and SUV-inspired pumping of yet more carbon dioxide into the atmosphere.
In response to these facts, a global warming devotee will chuckle and say "how silly to judge climate change over such a short period". Yet in the next breath, the same person will assure you that the 28-year-long period of warming which occurred between 1970 and 1998 constitutes a dangerous (and man-made) warming. Tosh. Our devotee will also pass by the curious additional facts that a period of similar warming occurred between 1918 and 1940, well prior to the greatest phase of world industrialisation, and that cooling occurred between 1940 and 1965, at precisely the time that human emissions were increasing at their greatest rate.
Does something not strike you as odd here? That industrial carbon dioxide is not the primary cause of earth's recent decadal-scale temperature changes doesn't seem at all odd to many thousands of independent scientists. They have long appreciated - ever since the early 1990s, when the global warming bandwagon first started to roll behind the gravy train of the UN Inter-governmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) - that such short-term climate fluctuations are chiefly of natural origin. Yet the public appears to be largely convinced otherwise. How is this possible?
Since the early 1990s, the columns of many leading newspapers and magazines, worldwide, have carried an increasing stream of alarmist letters and articles on hypothetical, human-caused climate change. Each such alarmist article is larded with words such as "if", "might", "could", "probably", "perhaps", "expected", "projected" or "modelled" - and many involve such deep dreaming, or ignorance of scientific facts and principles, that they are akin to nonsense.
The problem here is not that of climate change per se, but rather that of the sophisticated scientific brainwashing that has been inflicted on the public, bureaucrats and politicians alike. Governments generally choose not to receive policy advice on climate from independent scientists. Rather, they seek guidance from their own self-interested science bureaucracies and senior advisers, or from the IPCC itself. No matter how accurate it may be, cautious and politically non-correct science advice is not welcomed in Westminster, and nor is it widely reported.
Marketed under the imprimatur of the IPCC, the bladder-trembling and now infamous hockey-stick diagram that shows accelerating warming during the 20th century - a statistical construct by scientist Michael Mann and co-workers from mostly tree ring records - has been a seminal image of the climate scaremongering campaign. Thanks to the work of a Canadian statistician, Stephen McIntyre, and others, this graph is now known to be deeply flawed.
There are other reasons, too, why the public hears so little in detail from those scientists who approach climate change issues rationally, the so-called climate sceptics. Most are to do with intimidation against speaking out, which operates intensely on several parallel fronts.
First, most government scientists are gagged from making public comment on contentious issues, their employing organisations instead making use of public relations experts to craft carefully tailored, frisbee-science press releases. Second, scientists are under intense pressure to conform with the prevailing paradigm of climate alarmism if they wish to receive funding for their research. Third, members of the Establishment have spoken declamatory words on the issue, and the kingdom's subjects are expected to listen.
On the alarmist campaign trail, the UK's Chief Scientific Adviser, Sir David King, is thus reported as saying that global warming is so bad that Antarctica is likely to be the world's only habitable continent by the end of this century. Warming devotee and former Chairman of Shell, Lord [Ron] Oxburgh, reportedly agrees with another rash statement of King's, that climate change is a bigger threat than terrorism. And goodly Archbishop Rowan Williams, who self-evidently understands little about the science, has warned of "millions, billions" of deaths as a result of global warming and threatened Mr Blair with the wrath of the climate God unless he acts. By betraying the public's trust in their positions of influence, so do the great and good become the small and silly.
Two simple graphs provide needed context, and exemplify the dynamic, fluctuating nature of climate change. The first is a temperature curve for the last six million years, which shows a three-million year period when it was several degrees warmer than today, followed by a three-million year cooling trend which was accompanied by an increase in the magnitude of the pervasive, higher frequency, cold and warm climate cycles. During the last three such warm (interglacial) periods, temperatures at high latitudes were as much as 5 degrees warmer than today's. The second graph shows the average global temperature over the last eight years, which has proved to be a period of stasis.
The essence of the issue is this. Climate changes naturally all the time, partly in predictable cycles, and partly in unpredictable shorter rhythms and rapid episodic shifts, some of the causes of which remain unknown. We are fortunate that our modern societies have developed during the last 10,000 years of benignly warm, interglacial climate. But for more than 90 per cent of the last two million years, the climate has been colder, and generally much colder, than today. The reality of the climate record is that a sudden natural cooling is far more to be feared, and will do infinitely more social and economic damage, than the late 20th century phase of gentle warming.
The British Government urgently needs to recast the sources from which it draws its climate advice. The shrill alarmism of its public advisers, and the often eco-fundamentalist policy initiatives that bubble up from the depths of the Civil Service, have all long since been detached from science reality. Intern-ationally, the IPCC is a deeply flawed organisation, as acknowledged in a recent House of Lords report, and the Kyoto Protocol has proved a costly flop. Clearly, the wrong horses have been backed.
As mooted recently by Tony Blair, perhaps the time has come for Britain to join instead the new Asia-Pacific Partnership on Clean Development and Climate (AP6), whose six member countries are committed to the development of new technologies to improve environmental outcomes. There, at least, some real solutions are likely to emerge for improving energy efficiency and reducing pollution.
Informal discussions have already begun about a new AP6 audit body, designed to vet rigorously the science advice that the Partnership receives, including from the IPCC. Can Britain afford not to be there?
• Prof Bob Carter is a geologist at James Cook University, Queensland, engaged in paleoclimate research
© Copyright of Telegraph Group Limited 2006. Terms & Conditions of reading.
Commercial information. Privacy and Cookie Policy.
Sunday, April 09, 2006
A simple Irish prayer
Lord, please protect us from each other.
-Shawn Patrick O'Neal
-Shawn Patrick O'Neal
Doctor tells Retreat to Heal
email from Dr. LaCorte to The Retreat Association Mgmt. company ECAM.
Subject: Re: The Retreat
Date: Apr 8, 2006 11:09 PM
Charleen, 4-8-06
You have once again sent me a bill for the alleged Geotube assessment with an additional assessment of $537.90 representing monthly interest on for work which apparently you have been denied a permit to perform.
Additionally you have slandered my title by placing a lien on my property for an assessment that was allegedly passed based on false representations.
Please sent me copies of any and all correspondence including applications and response to applications between you and DEP for any proposed construction on Lot 6.
Please have the association lawyer remove the lien from my property immediately.
Please stop charging me interest.
If you are unable to accommodate the requests within 30 days, please send me the name of the insurance company providing insurance for you and the board as well as the malpractice carrier for our attorney.
Thank you in advance for your cooperation
Sincerely yours,
Bill La Corte
Subject: Re: The Retreat
Date: Apr 8, 2006 11:09 PM
Charleen, 4-8-06
You have once again sent me a bill for the alleged Geotube assessment with an additional assessment of $537.90 representing monthly interest on for work which apparently you have been denied a permit to perform.
Additionally you have slandered my title by placing a lien on my property for an assessment that was allegedly passed based on false representations.
Please sent me copies of any and all correspondence including applications and response to applications between you and DEP for any proposed construction on Lot 6.
Please have the association lawyer remove the lien from my property immediately.
Please stop charging me interest.
If you are unable to accommodate the requests within 30 days, please send me the name of the insurance company providing insurance for you and the board as well as the malpractice carrier for our attorney.
Thank you in advance for your cooperation
Sincerely yours,
Bill La Corte
Saturday, April 08, 2006
Retreat Dune Wango-Tango
The Board had a meeting on April 5th at 10:am to discuss the "old Business" from the previous meeting which was what they call Dune Remediation.
The association said that the board was in the process of getting a letter out to the members to explain the "Dune Project" Whatever that means...
Meanwhile DEP HQ, U.S. Fish & Wildlife, Walton County, Attorneys, etc. have the Retreat on their Radar screens waiting to see if they are foolish enough to attempt any work at the Retreat without a permit....Since the association sent a letter to DEP saying the Retreat intended to proceed after April 3rd......
I don't think D & O insurance covers unlawful activity.
The association said that the board was in the process of getting a letter out to the members to explain the "Dune Project" Whatever that means...
Meanwhile DEP HQ, U.S. Fish & Wildlife, Walton County, Attorneys, etc. have the Retreat on their Radar screens waiting to see if they are foolish enough to attempt any work at the Retreat without a permit....Since the association sent a letter to DEP saying the Retreat intended to proceed after April 3rd......
I don't think D & O insurance covers unlawful activity.
Friday, April 07, 2006
From the DEP
From the Feb. 2,2006 Letter To the Retreat from DEP
The proposed geotextile bag structure is defined under Rule 62B-33.002(5),
F.A.C. New armoring structures can be permitted by the DEP only if the structure
is to close a gap (no wider than 250 feet) between two existing structures
or to protect eligible and vulnerable structures pursuant to S. 161.085,F.S.
and Rule 62B-33.0051, F.A.C. The proposed armoring structure does not appear to
satisfy either of these criteria.
The proposed structure appears to be sited too far seaward within
marine turtle habitat.
The proposed geotextile bag structure is defined under Rule 62B-33.002(5),
F.A.C. New armoring structures can be permitted by the DEP only if the structure
is to close a gap (no wider than 250 feet) between two existing structures
or to protect eligible and vulnerable structures pursuant to S. 161.085,F.S.
and Rule 62B-33.0051, F.A.C. The proposed armoring structure does not appear to
satisfy either of these criteria.
The proposed structure appears to be sited too far seaward within
marine turtle habitat.
Thursday, April 06, 2006
Ahoy Mates !
A nice little ditty from old Robert himself...
Yo Ho Ho And A Bottle Of Rum
written by: Robert Lewis Stevenson 1881 and more lyrics added by Young Ewing Allison 1891
Fifteen men on a dead man’s chest
Yo ho ho and a bottle of rum
Drink and the devil be done for the rest
Yo ho ho and a bottle of rum
The mate was fixed by the bos’n’s pike
The bos’n’ brained with a marlin spike and
Cookey’s throat was marked belike It
Had been gripped by fingers ten and
There they lay all good dead men like
Break o’ day in a boozing ken__
Yo Ho Ho and a bottle of rum
Fifteen men of a whole ship’s list
Yo Ho Ho and a bottle of rum
Dead and be damned and the rest gone whist!
Yo ho ho and a bottle of rum
The skipper lay with his nob in gore where the
Scullion’s axe his cheek had shore
And the scullion he was stabbed times four and
There he lay and the soggy skies
Dripped all day in up-staring eyes at
Murk sunset and at foul sur-prise
Yo ho ho and a bottle of rum
Fifteen men of ‘em stiff and stark
Yo ho ho and a bottle of rum
Ten of the crew had the murder mark
Yo ho ho and a bottle of rum
‘Twas a cutlass swipe or and ounce of lead or a
Yawning hole in a battered head
and the scuppers glut with a yawning red and
There they lay aye damn my eyes
All lookouts clapped on par - a - dise all
Souls bound just con – tra – ri - wise
Yo ho ho and a bottle of rum
Fifteen men of ‘em good and true
Yo ho ho and a bottle of rum
Every man Jack could ha’ sailed with old Pew
Yo ho ho and a bottle of rum
There was chest on chest of Spanish gold with a
Ton of plate in the middle hold
And the cabins riot with stuff un told As
They lay there that had took the plum
With a sightless glare and their lips struck dumb
While we shared all by the rule of thumb
Yo ho ho and a bottle of rum
Fifteen men of a dead man’s chest
Yo ho ho and a bottle of rum
Drink and the devil had done for the rest
Yo ho ho and a bottle of rum
We wrapped ‘em all in a mains’l tight with
Twice ten turns of a hausers bight
And we heaved ‘em over and out of sight with a
Yo heave ho and fare you well
And a sullen plunge in a sullen swell
Ten fathoms deep on the road to hell
Yo ho ho and a bottle of rum pirates
Yo Ho Ho And A Bottle Of Rum
written by: Robert Lewis Stevenson 1881 and more lyrics added by Young Ewing Allison 1891
Fifteen men on a dead man’s chest
Yo ho ho and a bottle of rum
Drink and the devil be done for the rest
Yo ho ho and a bottle of rum
The mate was fixed by the bos’n’s pike
The bos’n’ brained with a marlin spike and
Cookey’s throat was marked belike It
Had been gripped by fingers ten and
There they lay all good dead men like
Break o’ day in a boozing ken__
Yo Ho Ho and a bottle of rum
Fifteen men of a whole ship’s list
Yo Ho Ho and a bottle of rum
Dead and be damned and the rest gone whist!
Yo ho ho and a bottle of rum
The skipper lay with his nob in gore where the
Scullion’s axe his cheek had shore
And the scullion he was stabbed times four and
There he lay and the soggy skies
Dripped all day in up-staring eyes at
Murk sunset and at foul sur-prise
Yo ho ho and a bottle of rum
Fifteen men of ‘em stiff and stark
Yo ho ho and a bottle of rum
Ten of the crew had the murder mark
Yo ho ho and a bottle of rum
‘Twas a cutlass swipe or and ounce of lead or a
Yawning hole in a battered head
and the scuppers glut with a yawning red and
There they lay aye damn my eyes
All lookouts clapped on par - a - dise all
Souls bound just con – tra – ri - wise
Yo ho ho and a bottle of rum
Fifteen men of ‘em good and true
Yo ho ho and a bottle of rum
Every man Jack could ha’ sailed with old Pew
Yo ho ho and a bottle of rum
There was chest on chest of Spanish gold with a
Ton of plate in the middle hold
And the cabins riot with stuff un told As
They lay there that had took the plum
With a sightless glare and their lips struck dumb
While we shared all by the rule of thumb
Yo ho ho and a bottle of rum
Fifteen men of a dead man’s chest
Yo ho ho and a bottle of rum
Drink and the devil had done for the rest
Yo ho ho and a bottle of rum
We wrapped ‘em all in a mains’l tight with
Twice ten turns of a hausers bight
And we heaved ‘em over and out of sight with a
Yo heave ho and fare you well
And a sullen plunge in a sullen swell
Ten fathoms deep on the road to hell
Yo ho ho and a bottle of rum pirates
Wednesday, April 05, 2006
Retreat property menu
LOTS:
56 WEST BERMUDA DRIVE, - $950,000.00
LOT 90 RETREAT THE, - $989,000.00
L52 BERMUDA DR, - $995,000.00
53 BERMUDA DR, - $1,100,000.00
85 BERMUDA DR, - $1,100,000.00
LOT 79 THE RETREAT, - $1,250,000.00
66 THE RETREAT, - $1,275,000.00
72 RETREAT DRIVE, - $1,300,000.00
LT 89 BERMUDA DR, - $1,399,000.00
67 ANTIGUA WAY, - $1,695,000.00
60 TORTOLA, - $1,850,000.00
46 BERMUDA DR, - $1,995,000.00
LT 33 BERMUDA DR, - $1,999,000.00
45 BERMUDA DR, - $2,250,000.00
36 BERMUDA DR, - $2,695,000.00
LOT 9 ST. LUCIA LANE, - $3,195,000.00
6 EAST ST. LUCIA LANE, - $3,400,000.00
17 ST. LUCIA LANE, - $3,595,000.00
HOMES:
54 TORTOLA LANE, - $2,675,000.00
96 BERMUDA DR, - $2,850,000.00
61 BERMUDA DR, - $3,500,000.00
LOT 22 WEST ST LUCIA LN., - $6,975,000.00
56 WEST BERMUDA DRIVE, - $950,000.00
LOT 90 RETREAT THE, - $989,000.00
L52 BERMUDA DR, - $995,000.00
53 BERMUDA DR, - $1,100,000.00
85 BERMUDA DR, - $1,100,000.00
LOT 79 THE RETREAT, - $1,250,000.00
66 THE RETREAT, - $1,275,000.00
72 RETREAT DRIVE, - $1,300,000.00
LT 89 BERMUDA DR, - $1,399,000.00
67 ANTIGUA WAY, - $1,695,000.00
60 TORTOLA, - $1,850,000.00
46 BERMUDA DR, - $1,995,000.00
LT 33 BERMUDA DR, - $1,999,000.00
45 BERMUDA DR, - $2,250,000.00
36 BERMUDA DR, - $2,695,000.00
LOT 9 ST. LUCIA LANE, - $3,195,000.00
6 EAST ST. LUCIA LANE, - $3,400,000.00
17 ST. LUCIA LANE, - $3,595,000.00
HOMES:
54 TORTOLA LANE, - $2,675,000.00
96 BERMUDA DR, - $2,850,000.00
61 BERMUDA DR, - $3,500,000.00
LOT 22 WEST ST LUCIA LN., - $6,975,000.00
Retreat Permit Update
An initial armoring permit was applied for in early January, 2006, Permit WL-858 AR, which asked for a permit to install geotubes, etc. There was a public comment period and letters were sent in by some owners and other affected property owners opposing the permit. So to clarify my last posting, this application is still floating around at DEP. We understand that the DEP file for this permit is incomplete and no decision can be made until the file is complete. And it is now April 5th , very close to 90 days from the application date on the original permit.
It now appears that a second permit, General Permit WL-894 GP, was applied for by The Retreat on March 22, 2006 to try and install the geotubes under a General Permit rather than an Armoring Permit. DEP’s response was that the “sand bag structure is defined as an armoring structure…and therefore, is not eligible for a general permit.”
According to Pat Green's Retreat update email " In addition to the armoring permit application for Geotube installation which was submitted to DEP in early January, a General Permit to install Geotubes was applied for on March 22, 2006. That request was denied by DEP on March 31, 2006 because the proposed activity did not qualify for a General Permit. In the meantime, all beach construction must cease on April 30, 2006 for turtle season". So General Permit WL-894 GP was denied.
WaterColor had applied and then withdrew (when they were informed of a pending denial) their application for armoring with Pro-tec tubes.
WaterColor's permit application asked for a Variance because they new a General Permit would not fly under DEP rules.
It now appears that a second permit, General Permit WL-894 GP, was applied for by The Retreat on March 22, 2006 to try and install the geotubes under a General Permit rather than an Armoring Permit. DEP’s response was that the “sand bag structure is defined as an armoring structure…and therefore, is not eligible for a general permit.”
According to Pat Green's Retreat update email " In addition to the armoring permit application for Geotube installation which was submitted to DEP in early January, a General Permit to install Geotubes was applied for on March 22, 2006. That request was denied by DEP on March 31, 2006 because the proposed activity did not qualify for a General Permit. In the meantime, all beach construction must cease on April 30, 2006 for turtle season". So General Permit WL-894 GP was denied.
WaterColor had applied and then withdrew (when they were informed of a pending denial) their application for armoring with Pro-tec tubes.
WaterColor's permit application asked for a Variance because they new a General Permit would not fly under DEP rules.
Tuesday, April 04, 2006
DEP says NO to the Retreat
We understand that the Retreat's armoring permit application for Geo-tubes File No. WL-858-AR has been denied by the Florida DEP.
The Lights are Back on Duty
The good old weathered Green hats are back in service on the streets in the Retreat.
A good electric crew and some elbow greese seems to be doing the trick.
And some good thinking....
A good electric crew and some elbow greese seems to be doing the trick.
And some good thinking....
Silver Lining in 2006 Storm Forecast
Read down for the Silver Lining in Bold
Gray's new prediction: Busy storm season
By DAVID LARIMER
FLORIDA TODAY WEB EXTRAS
Join us tonight
Post-hurricane tourism revival
Hurricane season draws near | video
Dr. William Gray's forecast site
Latest prediction
Here is Dr. William Gray's projection for the 2006 Atlantic hurricane season:
Storm type l forecast l Avg.
Trop. storms 17 9.6
Hurricanes 9 5.9
Maj. 'canes 5 2.3
Major hurricane has winds of 111 mph and higher
The nation's most prominent hurricane forecaster and his team today updated predictions for the 2006 season, echoing an earlier report: It will be a busy and dangerous year.
Dr. William Gray stuck with projections from his December 2005 forecast: There will be 17 tropical storms, nine of them strengthening to hurricane status and five of those becoming major hurricanes with sustained winds of 111 mph or higher.
But one item in his newest report is causing concern for Florida and the East Coast of the United States. The Colorado State University scientist said there is a 64 percent chance of a major hurricane making landfall in the region. The average for the last century is 31 percent, Gray said.
This region stretches from Cedar Key on Florida's west coast up to Maine, WKMG Local 6 meteorologist Larry Mowry pointed out.
"These are the highest percentages for this area in the last four years," Mowry said.
Last year, the Atlantic Basin had a record 27 tropical storms -- so many that the National Hurricane Center had to turn to the Greek alphabet for names. Of these storms, 15 grew into hurricanes with sustained winds of 74 mph or higher and seven became major hurricanes with winds more than 110 mph.
The historic average is 10 tropical storms, six hurricanes and 2.5 intense hurricanes.
The new forecast has a silver lining in the storm clouds -- scientists believe the next two years will be calmer than the 2004-05 seasons in landfalling major hurricanes.
"Even though we expect to see the current active period of Atlantic major hurricane activity to continue for another 15-20 years, it is statistically unlikely that the coming 2006 and 2007 hurricane seasons, or the seasons which follow, will have the number of major hurricane U.S. landfall events as we have seen in 2004-2005," the Colorado State scientists said.
La Niña prevails
Scientist said a La Niña pattern exists in the Pacific Ocean, which can lead to a busy hurricane season.
The Colorado State atmospheric team said either neutral or weak La Niña conditions are expected to be present during the June 1 to Nov. 30 Atlantic hurricane season.
La Niña is marked by cool sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific, meaning there will be fewer thunderstorms that can shear off the tops of budding hurricanes in the Atlantic.
On the other hand, El Niño is marked by warmer-than-normal sea temperatures, which can lead to more thunderstorms capable of capping hurricane activity.
New prime author of forecast
The latest forecast has a new main author for the first time with Gray handing over prime responsibility to scientist Phil Klotzbach.
"After 22 years (since 1984) of making these forecasts, it is appropriate that I step back and have Phil Klotzbach assume the primary responsibility for our project’s seasonal, monthly and landfall probability forecasts," Gray said.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Contact David Larimer at 321-242-3601 or dlarimer@brevard.gannett.com
Gray's new prediction: Busy storm season
By DAVID LARIMER
FLORIDA TODAY WEB EXTRAS
Join us tonight
Post-hurricane tourism revival
Hurricane season draws near | video
Dr. William Gray's forecast site
Latest prediction
Here is Dr. William Gray's projection for the 2006 Atlantic hurricane season:
Storm type l forecast l Avg.
Trop. storms 17 9.6
Hurricanes 9 5.9
Maj. 'canes 5 2.3
Major hurricane has winds of 111 mph and higher
The nation's most prominent hurricane forecaster and his team today updated predictions for the 2006 season, echoing an earlier report: It will be a busy and dangerous year.
Dr. William Gray stuck with projections from his December 2005 forecast: There will be 17 tropical storms, nine of them strengthening to hurricane status and five of those becoming major hurricanes with sustained winds of 111 mph or higher.
But one item in his newest report is causing concern for Florida and the East Coast of the United States. The Colorado State University scientist said there is a 64 percent chance of a major hurricane making landfall in the region. The average for the last century is 31 percent, Gray said.
This region stretches from Cedar Key on Florida's west coast up to Maine, WKMG Local 6 meteorologist Larry Mowry pointed out.
"These are the highest percentages for this area in the last four years," Mowry said.
Last year, the Atlantic Basin had a record 27 tropical storms -- so many that the National Hurricane Center had to turn to the Greek alphabet for names. Of these storms, 15 grew into hurricanes with sustained winds of 74 mph or higher and seven became major hurricanes with winds more than 110 mph.
The historic average is 10 tropical storms, six hurricanes and 2.5 intense hurricanes.
The new forecast has a silver lining in the storm clouds -- scientists believe the next two years will be calmer than the 2004-05 seasons in landfalling major hurricanes.
"Even though we expect to see the current active period of Atlantic major hurricane activity to continue for another 15-20 years, it is statistically unlikely that the coming 2006 and 2007 hurricane seasons, or the seasons which follow, will have the number of major hurricane U.S. landfall events as we have seen in 2004-2005," the Colorado State scientists said.
La Niña prevails
Scientist said a La Niña pattern exists in the Pacific Ocean, which can lead to a busy hurricane season.
The Colorado State atmospheric team said either neutral or weak La Niña conditions are expected to be present during the June 1 to Nov. 30 Atlantic hurricane season.
La Niña is marked by cool sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific, meaning there will be fewer thunderstorms that can shear off the tops of budding hurricanes in the Atlantic.
On the other hand, El Niño is marked by warmer-than-normal sea temperatures, which can lead to more thunderstorms capable of capping hurricane activity.
New prime author of forecast
The latest forecast has a new main author for the first time with Gray handing over prime responsibility to scientist Phil Klotzbach.
"After 22 years (since 1984) of making these forecasts, it is appropriate that I step back and have Phil Klotzbach assume the primary responsibility for our project’s seasonal, monthly and landfall probability forecasts," Gray said.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Contact David Larimer at 321-242-3601 or dlarimer@brevard.gannett.com
Monday, April 03, 2006
Those amazing Dunes
Dunes play an important role both to the beaches that front them and the land behind them. Dunes act as a sand reserve for beaches. Dune systems act as a buffer between the high energy of the ocean and the land. Dunes provide a barrier to salt intrusion from high tides and storm surges, and it protects the land behind the dunes from erosion.
The dunes in Florida are broken into five zones. These zones become more stable and are older as you move away from the beach. These zones are the pioneer dune zone, the fore dune zone, the dune field zone, the scrub zone, and the hammock zone.
The pioneer dune forms just above the highest tides. They are formed by windblown sand collecting around an obstruction. As organic matter is deposited by wind and waves, low herbs (e.g., sea-rockets, seaside evening-primrose) colonize the dune. As these plants collect more sand and organic matter, the dune increases in height becoming the fore dune.
As the fore dune grows it is colonized by sea-oats, railroad vine, sand spurs, beach croton, beach morning glory, and other plants. These low, tough plants have extensive root systems, which stabilize the dune.
Dune fields are formed as a series of older, stable fore dunes grow in height and organic content. The dune field will absorb much of the energy from storm surges, thereby protecting the land behind them.
When enough organic material has been collected, woody plants such as the palmetto, wax myrtle, cabbage palm, and sea grapes colonize the dunes. This creates a dense scrub zone. The oldest dunes may be colonized by trees such as the live oak and slash pine to create a maritime forest known as a hammock.
Sunday, April 02, 2006
U.S. Hurricane Activity Rates Increases Losses by 40% in Florida and Gulf Coast
Elevated Storm Frequency and Intensity Expected To Persist For At Least Five
Years
NEWARK, Calif., March 23 /PRNewswire/ -- Risk Management Solutions (RMS)
today announced that increases to hurricane landfall frequencies in the
company's U.S. hurricane model will increase modeled annualized insurance
losses by 40% on average across the Gulf Coast, Florida and the Southeast, and
by 25-30% in the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast coastal regions, relative to those
derived using long-term 1900-2005 historical average hurricane frequencies.
This new view of risk is driven by an increase of more than 30% in the
modeled frequency of major (Saffir-Simpson Category 3-5) hurricanes making
landfall in the U.S. to account for current elevated levels of hurricane
activity in the Atlantic basin that are expected to persist for at least the
next five years. When compared with a pre-2004 historical baseline, as has
been previously employed for quantifying insurance risk, the increases in
modeled annualized losses are closer to 50% in the Gulf, Florida, and the
Southeast.
The increased frequency and intensity of hurricane activity in the
Atlantic Ocean Basin, as observed since 1995, are driven by higher sea surface
temperatures in the tropical North Atlantic and by associated changes in
atmospheric circulation. These warmer temperatures are expected to translate
into a continuation of high activity in the basin, leading to a greater
potential for hurricanes to make landfall at higher intensities over the next
five years.
To address this period of elevated frequency and intensity of storms, RMS
consulted with representatives from all segments of the insurance industry and
updated its U.S. and Caribbean hurricane models to provide a 'medium-term'
(five-year) forward-looking view of risk for estimating potential catastrophe
losses. To date, catastrophe model results have been based on a long-term
historical average baseline.
Expert Panel Convened
The RMS medium-term view of hurricane activity was developed in
cooperation with a panel of leading experts in hurricane climatology convened
by RMS in October 2005, which included: Dr. Jim Elsner, Professor in the
Department of Geography, Florida State University; Dr. Kerry Emanuel,
Professor in the Department of Earth, Atmospheric and Planetary Sciences,
Massachusetts Institute of Technology; Tom Knutson, Research Meteorologist,
Geophysical Fluids Dynamic Laboratory, Princeton University; and Dr. Mark
Saunders, Professor of Climate Prediction, Department of Space and Climate
Physics, University College London.
Based on the five-year perspective of this expert panel, RMS developed a
methodology to update activity rates in its proprietary models based on storm
intensity, storm track, and landfall region. This methodology indicates that
increases in hurricane frequencies should be expected across the entire U.S.
coast, but will be highest in the Gulf, Florida, and the Southeast, while
lower in the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast.
"Considerable scientific debate on the reasons for the high state of
current hurricane activity continues among leading climatologists, between
those who view natural, multi-decadal variability as the principal cause and
those who also see a significant influence of global warming," said Dr. Robert
Muir-Wood, chief research officer at RMS. "While the experts convened by RMS
hold different climatological perspectives on the underlying causes of
elevated hurricane activity, they agreed unanimously that a forward-looking
view of risk should reflect a higher probability of land-falling hurricanes
than is represented by long-term historical averages."
This new outlook regarding heightened hurricane intensity and landfall
frequency will be incorporated in the updated RMS(R) U.S. and Caribbean
Hurricane Models, part of the May 2006 release of the RiskLink(R) and
RiskBrowser(R) 6.0 catastrophe modeling platforms. The models will also
contain changes in the modeling of vulnerabilities and post-event loss
amplification effects based on detailed RMS analysis of claims data from the
2004 and 2005 hurricane seasons. RMS will continue to monitor, publish, and
apply the five-year forward-looking view of activity rates, in conjunction
with convening an annual expert elicitation of leading hurricane
climatologists.
"Coming off back-to-back, extraordinarily active hurricane seasons, the
market is looking for leadership. At RMS, we are taking a clear, unambiguous
position that our clients should manage their risks in a manner consistent
with elevated levels of hurricane activity and severity," stated Hemant Shah,
president and CEO of RMS. "We live in a dynamic world, and there is now a
critical mass of data and science that point to this being the prudent course
of action."
About RMS
Risk Management Solutions is the world's leading provider of products and
services for catastrophe risk management. More than 400 leading insurers,
reinsurers, trading companies, and other financial institutions rely on RMS
models to quantify, manage, and transfer risk. Founded at Stanford University
in 1988, RMS serves clients today from offices in the U.S., Europe, and Japan.
For more information, visit our web site at http://www.rms.com .
RMS is a registered trademark, and the RMS logo is a trademark of Risk
Management Solutions, Inc. All other trademarks are property of their
respective owners.
Mark Prindle
TorranceCo, New York
1-212-691-5860
mprindle@torranceco.com
Shannon McKay
RMS, California
1-510-402-3391
shannon.mckay@rms.com
SOURCE Risk Management Solutions
Web Site: http://www.rms.com
Years
NEWARK, Calif., March 23 /PRNewswire/ -- Risk Management Solutions (RMS)
today announced that increases to hurricane landfall frequencies in the
company's U.S. hurricane model will increase modeled annualized insurance
losses by 40% on average across the Gulf Coast, Florida and the Southeast, and
by 25-30% in the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast coastal regions, relative to those
derived using long-term 1900-2005 historical average hurricane frequencies.
This new view of risk is driven by an increase of more than 30% in the
modeled frequency of major (Saffir-Simpson Category 3-5) hurricanes making
landfall in the U.S. to account for current elevated levels of hurricane
activity in the Atlantic basin that are expected to persist for at least the
next five years. When compared with a pre-2004 historical baseline, as has
been previously employed for quantifying insurance risk, the increases in
modeled annualized losses are closer to 50% in the Gulf, Florida, and the
Southeast.
The increased frequency and intensity of hurricane activity in the
Atlantic Ocean Basin, as observed since 1995, are driven by higher sea surface
temperatures in the tropical North Atlantic and by associated changes in
atmospheric circulation. These warmer temperatures are expected to translate
into a continuation of high activity in the basin, leading to a greater
potential for hurricanes to make landfall at higher intensities over the next
five years.
To address this period of elevated frequency and intensity of storms, RMS
consulted with representatives from all segments of the insurance industry and
updated its U.S. and Caribbean hurricane models to provide a 'medium-term'
(five-year) forward-looking view of risk for estimating potential catastrophe
losses. To date, catastrophe model results have been based on a long-term
historical average baseline.
Expert Panel Convened
The RMS medium-term view of hurricane activity was developed in
cooperation with a panel of leading experts in hurricane climatology convened
by RMS in October 2005, which included: Dr. Jim Elsner, Professor in the
Department of Geography, Florida State University; Dr. Kerry Emanuel,
Professor in the Department of Earth, Atmospheric and Planetary Sciences,
Massachusetts Institute of Technology; Tom Knutson, Research Meteorologist,
Geophysical Fluids Dynamic Laboratory, Princeton University; and Dr. Mark
Saunders, Professor of Climate Prediction, Department of Space and Climate
Physics, University College London.
Based on the five-year perspective of this expert panel, RMS developed a
methodology to update activity rates in its proprietary models based on storm
intensity, storm track, and landfall region. This methodology indicates that
increases in hurricane frequencies should be expected across the entire U.S.
coast, but will be highest in the Gulf, Florida, and the Southeast, while
lower in the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast.
"Considerable scientific debate on the reasons for the high state of
current hurricane activity continues among leading climatologists, between
those who view natural, multi-decadal variability as the principal cause and
those who also see a significant influence of global warming," said Dr. Robert
Muir-Wood, chief research officer at RMS. "While the experts convened by RMS
hold different climatological perspectives on the underlying causes of
elevated hurricane activity, they agreed unanimously that a forward-looking
view of risk should reflect a higher probability of land-falling hurricanes
than is represented by long-term historical averages."
This new outlook regarding heightened hurricane intensity and landfall
frequency will be incorporated in the updated RMS(R) U.S. and Caribbean
Hurricane Models, part of the May 2006 release of the RiskLink(R) and
RiskBrowser(R) 6.0 catastrophe modeling platforms. The models will also
contain changes in the modeling of vulnerabilities and post-event loss
amplification effects based on detailed RMS analysis of claims data from the
2004 and 2005 hurricane seasons. RMS will continue to monitor, publish, and
apply the five-year forward-looking view of activity rates, in conjunction
with convening an annual expert elicitation of leading hurricane
climatologists.
"Coming off back-to-back, extraordinarily active hurricane seasons, the
market is looking for leadership. At RMS, we are taking a clear, unambiguous
position that our clients should manage their risks in a manner consistent
with elevated levels of hurricane activity and severity," stated Hemant Shah,
president and CEO of RMS. "We live in a dynamic world, and there is now a
critical mass of data and science that point to this being the prudent course
of action."
About RMS
Risk Management Solutions is the world's leading provider of products and
services for catastrophe risk management. More than 400 leading insurers,
reinsurers, trading companies, and other financial institutions rely on RMS
models to quantify, manage, and transfer risk. Founded at Stanford University
in 1988, RMS serves clients today from offices in the U.S., Europe, and Japan.
For more information, visit our web site at http://www.rms.com .
RMS is a registered trademark, and the RMS logo is a trademark of Risk
Management Solutions, Inc. All other trademarks are property of their
respective owners.
Mark Prindle
TorranceCo, New York
1-212-691-5860
mprindle@torranceco.com
Shannon McKay
RMS, California
1-510-402-3391
shannon.mckay@rms.com
SOURCE Risk Management Solutions
Web Site: http://www.rms.com
Retreat Countdown
59 Days until 2006 hurricane season
42 DEP Days until 2006 Hurricane season (they don't work weekends or holidays)
28 Days until the start of 2006 turtle season
20 Fish & Wildlife days until 2006 turtle season (They don't work weekends or holidays)
42 DEP Days until 2006 Hurricane season (they don't work weekends or holidays)
28 Days until the start of 2006 turtle season
20 Fish & Wildlife days until 2006 turtle season (They don't work weekends or holidays)
